Power consumption forecasts for the next day are produced on the basis of weather forecasts, starting at midnight, and are updated several times per day. They are therefore likely to change significantly both in terms of form and level.
Power consumption forecasts for the next but one day are given as a guide only. They are produced on the basis of meteorological data two days beforehand starting at 5 AM, and are updated during the course of the day on which they are produced. They are therefore likely to change significantly both in terms of form and level.
In addition to power consumption forecasts for the next day and the next but one day, power consumption forecasts have been given for the next 7 days as a guide since mid-December 2014, in accordance with Commission Regulation no. 543/2013 on the publication of transparent electricity market data. These forecasts are produced on the basis of consumption measurements* and the meteorological conditions observed over the 7 previous days, and based on 9-day meteorological forecasts.
These forecasts are updated every working day. They are therefore likely to change significantly both in terms of form and level.
The “D-2 Forecast" column refers to the consumption forecast produced on D-1 or D-2 . The “Forecast > D-2 "weekly forecast" column refers to the last consumption forecast produced for the next 7 days (I'm referring to the last forecast, because, for example, for 02/10 there are 5 forecasts altogether for the various 7-day consumption forecast cycles).
Daily consumption peaks (in MW) and hypothetical temperature (in °C)
You may view forecasts for a specific day by selecting the day required, or view the forecast for the week ahead
Knowledge of the consumption of electricity in France in real time is essential for controlling the balance between production and consumption at all times. The quality of this data directly influences the security of the operation of the electricity system.
The measurement in real time of consumption in France is made indirectly using remote measurements available at the power plants of the RPT and RPD, as well as on the interconnection lines with neighbouring countries. It is given by the following formula:
For power stations not measured remotely, fixed amounts of data are added to cover the whole perimeter of the France.
The measurement of consumption in France, made in real time, is then refined at a later stage with the data provided from the meters readings of all the consumers.
The demand response is a change in the power consumption (from the normal consumption) of an electric utility customer requested by an exterior signal in order to better match the power demand / supply of electricity:
The activated demand response gathers the best estimation of tariff / contractual / demand responses known by RTE in France when the calculation is performed. The effective performance of the demand response is checked later in order to ensure the invoice-typing.
RTE provides market players with the yearly electricity consumption forecast for mainland France.
For each week of the year, RTE provides for information, the four following forecasts:
- Average load during the week from Saturday to Friday (00:00-24:00)
- Average load during the periods (08h00-24h00) from Monday to Sunday
- Weekly minimum
- Weekly maximum
The yearly forecast is published at the end of the year for the next year and may be updated during the year.
It is based on reference temperature conditions. A more detailed forecast is provided for the coming week, when precise meteorological forecasts are available. It may, therefore, vary significantly.
( - ) Data not available
A year-ahead forecast margin, which is defined as the difference between yearly forecast of available generation capacity and yearly forecast of total load, taking into account the forecast of total generation capacity, forecast of availability of generation and forecast of reserves contracted for system services.
Load and available generation capacity have to be considered per bidding zone, evaluated at local market time unit of annual maximum load.
There is one value to be published for the whole year.